Comments on: Gain 5mph through steroid use? Wowza http://www.cheatersguidetobaseball.com/2007/10/01/gain-5mph-through-steroid-use-wowza/ Baseball, Cheating, and Rules discussion at the author's blog for the Cheater's Guide to Baseball Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:17:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Pete Livengood http://www.cheatersguidetobaseball.com/2007/10/01/gain-5mph-through-steroid-use-wowza/#comment-1049 Pete Livengood Mon, 01 Oct 2007 23:24:37 +0000 http://www.cheatersguidetobaseball.com/2007/10/01/gain-5mph-through-steroid-use-wowza/#comment-1049 <blockquote>Think about it like this: a pitcher with an 87-mph fastball and good control is at best a marginal major leaguer, most likely grinding out a job at the back of the rotation or in long relief. Throwing 92 with good control, though — that’s a front-end rotation guy.</blockquote> **cough*cough*Joel*Pineiro*cough*cough**

Think about it like this: a pitcher with an 87-mph fastball and good control is at best a marginal major leaguer, most likely grinding out a job at the back of the rotation or in long relief. Throwing 92 with good control, though — that’s a front-end rotation guy.

**cough*cough*Joel*Pineiro*cough*cough**

]]> By: Bob Montgomery http://www.cheatersguidetobaseball.com/2007/10/01/gain-5mph-through-steroid-use-wowza/#comment-1047 Bob Montgomery Mon, 01 Oct 2007 20:43:24 +0000 http://www.cheatersguidetobaseball.com/2007/10/01/gain-5mph-through-steroid-use-wowza/#comment-1047 And actually, I ran the numbers back about 30 years for overall HR rates (HR/AB) and for the HR rate for the league-leader (I looked at both leagues, separately). I looked hard, but I just couldn't find any evidence of a steroid-related homerun "rise and fall." Looking at league-wide HR/AB numbers, there were big jumps in 1982, 1985, 1987, 1993, and 1994 (and 1999 in the NL). All these jumps were about the same size, increases of 10%-20% over the previous year. There is no sudden drop in 2003. The biggest drop in HR rates is in 1988, following the homerun jump in 1987. To my eyes, if you want to argue for a "steroid era," you either have to argue for 1985-present or 1993-present. HR rates starting rising, fitfully, in 1985, really took off in 1993 and leveled off after 1994, where they have remained. I also looked at the relative HR rate of the league leader(s) for the same time period and I don't see any evidence of a decline in 2003 there either. Really, the only outliers here are McGwire in 1998 and 1999 and Bonds in 2001. And actually, I ran the numbers back about 30 years for overall HR rates (HR/AB) and for the HR rate for the league-leader (I looked at both leagues, separately). I looked hard, but I just couldn’t find any evidence of a steroid-related homerun “rise and fall.”

Looking at league-wide HR/AB numbers, there were big jumps in 1982, 1985, 1987, 1993, and 1994 (and 1999 in the NL). All these jumps were about the same size, increases of 10%-20% over the previous year.

There is no sudden drop in 2003. The biggest drop in HR rates is in 1988, following the homerun jump in 1987.

To my eyes, if you want to argue for a “steroid era,” you either have to argue for 1985-present or 1993-present. HR rates starting rising, fitfully, in 1985, really took off in 1993 and leveled off after 1994, where they have remained.

I also looked at the relative HR rate of the league leader(s) for the same time period and I don’t see any evidence of a decline in 2003 there either. Really, the only outliers here are McGwire in 1998 and 1999 and Bonds in 2001.

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